Monthly Report | July 2025

Conflict Escalation, Flood Disasters, and Humanitarian Response in Arakan

Monitoring of a brief situation of political tension, economic issues, social issues, and humanitarian issues in Arakan in July 2025.

About report

This report is part of the CAS's monthly series, which delves into four key areas of the state of Arakan. The first section addresses political concerns, including the armed revolution, junta activities, and issues of political freedom. The second examines the state's economic climate, focusing on rising prices, declining demand, foreign direct investment, and border trade. The third and fourth sections cover social and humanitarian issues, respectively; these include education, health, migration, and the internally displaced persons (IDP) population.

Key data in the report are sourced from local media outlets, such as DMG, Western News, among others. The aim of this report is to shed new light on the situation for observers endeavoring to comprehend the dynamics at play in the region.

Executive Summary

In July 2025, fighting in Kyaukphyu intensified despite a ceasefire, with the Myanmar military launching airstrikes and ground assaults, resulting in civilian casualties and displacement. The Arakan Army (AA) made strategic territorial gains by capturing key outposts and supply routes, while both sides suffered heavy losses in ongoing clashes.

Arakan faced significant economic challenges, with soaring food prices and severe flooding that damaged crops and disrupted trade. The ULA expanded its influence by promoting local economic activities, such as increasing local alcohol production and providing agricultural support, despite the ongoing conflict. Regional developments, including India's Kaladan River Project and new trade routes, aimed to enhance connectivity, while corruption within the military was exposed through bribery cases. Overall, the region remained volatile, grappling with environmental crises, ongoing conflict, and efforts toward economic resilience amid widespread hardship.

Severe flooding caused by relentless rains resulted in widespread displacement, food shortages, and infrastructure damage. Violence and crime surged in junta-controlled areas, with forced recruitment, landmine threats, and human rights abuses affecting local communities. Socioeconomic hardships worsened as malnutrition, theft, and lack of access to medical care created a dire humanitarian situation.

Intensified violence in Kyaukphyu led to over 22,000 IDPs, while ongoing conflict caused long-term displacement across multiple townships, with many struggling to access basic needs. Heavy rains and rising rivers triggered severe flooding across districts such as Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U, and Thandwe, displacing thousands and damaging homes, further worsening the humanitarian crisis. Despite these hardships, local and regional organizations, including foundations, mobilized funds and aid efforts to support flood-affected communities and refugees, though challenges such as insecurity and limited resources remained.

Key Developments

A - Politics and Armed Conflicts

B - Economic Situations

C - Social Issues

D - Humanitarian Issues

A - Politics and Armed Conflicts

1. Intensified Fighting in Kyaukphyu Despite Ceasefire Declarations

On July 2, shortly after the Myanmar military announced a ceasefire extension, fierce clashes erupted once again in Kyaukphyu. Junta forces launched airstrikes and ground assaults in the area, escalating the conflict. By July 5,fighting had intensified along the Kyaukphyu coast and nearby villages, with reports of civilians caught in the crossfire. The Arakan Army (AA) responded with shelling of military positions, gaining control of key strategic locations. Throughout early July, the fighting resulted in civilian casualties, including injuries from shelling and airstrikes, and the displacement of local communities. On July 10, the battle resumed in multiple locations after a brief standoff, with both sides suffering casualties.

2. AA's Territorial Gains and Military Strategy

On July 7, the AA launched a coordinated attack on a junta-held outpost along the Ann-Padan Road, capturing territory and damaging military equipment. By July 12, AA shelling targeted junta positions near Kyaukphyu, causing significant damage and forcing retreating troops to abandon several strategic sites. The AA also made advances along the coast, securing control of key fishing and supply routes. On July 17, reports indicated that the AA detained and forcibly recruited local youth, while the junta responded with increased military reinforcements. The conflict saw the AA consolidating territorial positions, with the junta struggling to regain lost ground. On July 23, intense air raids by the junta targeted AA-controlled areas, but the AA claimed to have inflicted heavy losses on regime forces, including the destruction of military vehicles.

3. Civilian Suffering and Humanitarian Concerns

Civilian communities in Kyaukphyu and surrounding areas endured severe hardship. On July 10, a woman was injured by shelling, and reports emerged of displacement as villagers fled ongoing battles. Human rights organizations condemned the use of landmines along the Rakhine-Bangladesh border, which injured two young Bangladeshi fishermen on July 22 and 28. Additionally, there were reports of forced recruitment of young men by both sides, with some civilians abducted from their homes to join the conflict. Civilians also suffered from airstrikes targeting residential areas, including the bombing of a monastery on July 31, which resulted in civilian casualties. The escalation of violence created a dire humanitarian situation, with urgent calls for a ceasefire and the protection of civilians amid ongoing hostilities.

4. General Overview

In July 2025, the conflict in Rakhine State, particularly in Kyaukphyu, escalated despite initial attempts at ceasefire extensions. The Arakan Army (AA) made significant territorial advances, capturing strategic outposts along key supply routes and resisting junta counterattacks through shelling and coordinated assaults. The Myanmar military responded with intensified airstrikes, land-based assaults, and reinforcements, leading to heavy casualties and the displacement of civilians. Civilian suffering was exacerbated by shelling, landmine injuries, forced recruitment, and attacks on religious sites. The conflict reflected a broader struggle for control, with both sides suffering losses and civilians bearing the brunt of the violence. Human rights concerns and calls for a ceasefire grew louder as the violence threatened regional stability and worsened humanitarian conditions.

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