Monthly Report • November 27th 2025 • Center for Arakan Studies

Monthly Report | October 2025

Photo Credit via Ni Mi Tun Journalist
 

Winds of War and Want: Tale of Trajectories and Turmoil in Arakan

Monitoring of a brief situation of political tension, economic issues, social issues, and humanitarian issues in Western Myanmar in October 2025.

About report

This report is part of the CAS's monthly series, which delves into four key areas of the state of Arakan. The first section addresses political concerns, including the armed revolution, junta activities, and issues of political freedom. The second examines the state's economic climate, focusing on rising prices, declining demand, foreign direct investment, and border trade. The third and fourth sections cover social and humanitarian issues, respectively; these include education, health, migration, and the internally displaced persons (IDP) population.

Key data in the report are sourced from local media outlets, such as DMG, Western News, among others. The aim of this report is to shed new light on the situation for observers endeavoring to comprehend the dynamics at play in the region.

Executive Summary

  • Rakhine State in October 2025 saw escalating violence with ARSA executing ethnic civilians, mass junta surrenders to AA at Nat Yekan, and over 970 civilian deaths from military operations amid relentless airstrikes. AA seized strategic control while imposing governance measures and facing conscription allegations, as civil society pushed for UN recognition against the regime’s sham elections and deepening humanitarian crisis.
  • The region also faced severe economic turmoil and cross-border strains, highlighted by Bangladesh Coast Guard seizing cement smugglers, UNDP reporting nearly 4 million unemployed youth in Myanmar, and gold prices nearing K9 million per tical amid soaring essentials. Local industries collapsed, farmers battled pests without aid, and trafficking persisted, underscoring fragile livelihoods, youth despair, and governance failures in a conflict-ravaged region.
  • Junta-controlled parts of Rakhine grappled with acute humanitarian collapse, as soaring funeral costs left bodies unburied in Sittwe, five IDP schools for nearly 1,000 displaced children faced closure in Sittwe, and four civilians were murdered on Ngapali Beach. Widespread hunger, healthcare failure, arbitrary detentions, and stranded returnees underscored deepening desperation and governance breakdown amid escalating lawlessness.
  • Residents of the region also faced a deepening humanitarian catastrophe amid conflict and aid restrictions, exemplified by thousands in Sittwe turning to monastic rice donations for survival, ULA/AA's reconstruction of a mosque and 100 homes in Rohingya-majority Htan Shauk Khan to foster reconciliation, and UNHCR's initiation of new housing for IDPs in Sittwe alongside ICRC sanitation efforts. Surging displacement in Kyaukphyu and Maungdaw, coupled with urgent needs for winter clothing and blankets, highlighted acute hunger affecting 57% of families, malnutrition spikes among children, and blocked access exacerbating ethnic vulnerabilities for Rohingya and others.

    • Key Developments

  • A - Politics and Armed Conflicts: Three Key Highlights
  • B - Economy: Three Key Highlights
  • C - Social Issues: Three Key Highlights
  • D - Humanitarian Issue: Three Key Highlights

    • A - Politics and Armed Conflicts: Three Key Highlights

    1. 1-Oct-25: ARSA executes six Arakanese civilians in Maungdaw

    Bodies of six ethnic Rakhine civilians, shot and abandoned by ARSA militants, were discovered in Maungdaw’s border jungle—AA condemned the killings as targeted ethnic violence amid rising insurgent attacks on non-Muslims.

    2. 17–18-Oct-25: Mass junta surrender at Nat Yekan strategic hill

    Dozens of regime soldiers fled in disarray from Nat Yekan Air Defense Base on Ann-Padan Road, raising white flags and surrendering en masse to AA forces; deserters were captured while others abandoned weapons, marking a humiliating collapse after weeks of reinforcement attempts.

    3. 29-Oct-25: HDCO reports 970 civilian deaths from junta operations

    Human rights monitor HDCO documented 970 civilians killed and 2,054 injured across Rakhine State since the start of military offensives, with a five-year-old girl among three killed by junta shelling in Pauktaw—31 civil society groups issued a joint condemnation (30-Oct).

    Summarized Overview

    From 1-Oct to 31-Oct-25, Rakhine State endured fierce AA-junta clashes, ARSA insurgent attacks, and deepening civilian suffering. The military bombarded townships with airstrikes and artillery, killing dozens including 23 in September bombings and 10 on 31-Oct across Ponnagyun, Rathedaung, and Kyaukphyu, while AA seized strategic hills like Nat Yekan amid mass surrenders and controlled most,…

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    The CAS is an independent, non-partisan and research-oriented group conducting research and analyzing issues related to Arakan/Rakhine affairs.

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