Center for Arakan Studies

The Rohingya refugee repatriation issue represents one of the most protracted humanitarian crises along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border. This study applies complexity theory to examine four key characteristics: heterogeneity of agents, absence of problem ownership, uneven policy adoptions, and non-linearity. The crisis has evolved through multiple displacement waves since 1978, with the 2017 exodus resulting in approximately 963,000 Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.

Center for Arakan Studies

This report examines the marginalization of once-dominant Rakhine political actors—including the ALP, ANC, ALD, RNDP, ANP, AFP, and RNP—in the shadow of the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA). Using a qualitative methodology based on secondary sources, the study analyzes how these actors lost political relevance while the ULA/AA rose from a marginal force to control over 90 percent of Arakan's territory with more than 50,000 troops by mid-2026.

Center for Arakan Studies

The 2025 elections in Myanmar were conducted amid ongoing armed conflicts, territorial fragmentation, and political suppression and repression, functioning primarily as a managed authoritarian process rather than a mechanism for democratic representation. Building on historical patterns of electoral manipulation and annulment, the junta used the elections to project constitutional continuity while maintaining effective military control over political participation and outcomes.

Center for Arakan Studies

From November 2023 to December 2024, the resumption of armed clashes in Arakan, driven by the Arakan Army (AA) as part of the broader '1027 Operation,' severely disrupted border trade with Bangladesh. The conflict led to the closure of key trade routes, such as the Maungdaw-Angumaw road, halting official trade crossings and causing goods like rice and betel nuts to rot in warehouses, resulting in significant economic losses. Informal trade persisted under volatile security conditions, with local traders reporting challenges due to blockades by the Myanmar junta and ongoing fighting, which pushed both traders and authorities to seek alternative routes through India’s Mizoram via Paletwa.

Center for Arakan Studies

September 2026 saw intensified fighting between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army across Sittwe, Ponnagyun, Kyaukphyu and other fronts. The junta launched its so-called “Operation 4926,” using airstrikes, artillery, drones, naval forces and ground offensives, while the AA counterattacked and captured several junta outposts. Despite reported junta casualties and retreats, military operations continued, including the Kyindwe offensive launched at the end of the month.

Center for Arakan Studies

Throughout August 2026, the junta and AA engaged in intense conflict, with the regime relying on punitive airstrikes against civilians to compensate for ground losses, as acknowledged by the AA on August 6. The ULA/AA expanded governance by imposing curfews, banning underage motorcycle driving, creating a special court for rape and major crimes, introducing a 50% tax on alcohol and tobacco, and sentencing the Ponnagyun rape-murder perpetrator to death.

Center for Arakan Studies

The ULA consolidated control across Arakan State in July 2026 through banking system establishment, business licensing, and renaming Minbya and Pauktaw to historic titles on July 29. The junta responded with relentless airstrikes killing at least 12 civilians and bombing a POW camp in Maungdaw that killed four detainees, while ground clashes intensified around Kyaukphyu, Sittwe, and the Rakhine-Magway border.

Center for Arakan Studies

The AA significantly expanded control in June 2026, encircling Kyaukphyu's naval station and repelling a major junta offensive along the Rakhine-Magway border, killing 30 troops and capturing over 20 soldiers. The junta responded with intensified airstrikes and troop reinforcements while conducting mass civilian arrests in Sittwe and Ramree on suspicion of AA ties. Min Aung Hlaing visited China for official recognition and trade deals, while Bangladesh began to claim the facilitation of junta-AA talks on refugee repatriation.

Center for Arakan Studies

The Arakan Army (AA) significantly expanded territorial control and state-like governance functions in May 2026, seizing junta camps, issuing vehicle licenses, releasing prisoners of war, and conducting cross-border diplomacy with Bangladesh. The Myanmar Junta responded with cluster bomb attacks, daily airstrikes, and a multi-front offensive, but struggled with forced conscription failures and the loss of key battalions as the AA gained both military ground and popular legitimacy.

Center for Arakan Studies